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Prevalence of hypertension in Rwandan population using Gibbs method

Angelique Dukunde

Hypertension in Africa was estimated at 30.8%  in  2010  with a dramatic increase in some regions ranging between 36.2%-77.3%  (Adeloye  Basquill,  2014).  In  Rwanda,  the prevalence of hypertension was estimated to  15.0%  in  2015,  (Nahimana et al.,  2017).  In  Rwanda, there is no model that can help decision-makers to know the behavior of hypertension in the future. The objective of this study was to predict the prevalence of hypertension in  Rwanda for  10 years using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method and other related diseases.  Data used were from, the Gibbs method for sampling helped to find the transition matrix.  It was found that the prevalence of hypertension, tobacco use, overweight, obesity, and another subject will be predicted 17.82%, 26.26%, 17.13%, 4.80%, and 33.99% in 2025 respectively. This implies that Rwanda needs to take the measure of healthy diets and physical exercises to prevent and reduce the prevalence of the diseases.